Rethinking the provincial and federal governments’ proposed bail reforms

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has proposed changes that would see an expansion in the use of reverse-onus provisions for bail, purportedly for violent and repeat offenders. Reverse onus shifts the burden onto the accused to demonstrate why they should be released, rather than requiring the Crown to justify detention. The plan would tighten release conditions and limit the application of the current principle of restraint.

Polling from Abacus Data shows that nearly 80 per cent of Canadians believe it is too easy for people accused of serious crimes to be released on bail. When asked which policies would most reduce violent crime over the long term, 62 per cent of respondents selected stricter bail rules and increased enforcement.

This strong public sentiment has helped make bail reform a central policy focus for governments at the federal and provincial levels.

At the provincial level, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has proposed changes that would effectively reintroduce a form of cash bail by requiring people to provide an upfront deposit in order to be released from custody. This marks a shift from the current system, where individuals typically promise to pay a set amount only if they breach their bail conditions, with no money required at the time of release. However, such a measure is considered unconstitutional by the Canadian Civil Liberties Association (CCLA), as regulating bail and pre-trial release falls under federal jurisdiction, not the province’s.

Crisis in Ontario jails

These proposals come against the backdrop of reports that Ontario jails are in crisis.

There is a record level of overcrowding in Ontario’s prisons. In 2025, the inmate population averaged 10,800 individuals, while the province’s jails had a maximum capacity of 8,500 beds.

“They’re living three to a cell in a cell that only has two beds,” said Norman E. Taylor, an educator, author, and researcher focused on policing and public safety.

The Ontario Ombudsman, Paul Dubé, has stated that, because of this overcrowding, inmates are being housed in broom closets and former pantries.

These conditions are leading to outbreaks of disease, increasing incidences of violence, including against correctional officers, and prison lockdowns that suspend access to services and restrict movement due to strained capacity.

“It’s inhumane. It should disgust every citizen of Ontario that this is happening under our watch,” said Taylor.

As our jails overflow with individuals, the government is only taking more steps to increase the prison population through sweeping bail reforms. 

The provincial government’s solution to this has been to increase the number of beds available in prisons and build new facilities to house inmates.

Experts and advocates argue that the most effective way to address the crisis in our jails is not to focus on expanding capacity, but to take a hard look at who we are incarcerating in the first place.

“Most of the people in that 10,000-plus population are not criminals in the true sense of the word. By and large, they are marginalized people who don’t have the options to bail out or get sureties that the real criminals get,” said Taylor.

Held without a trial, let alone a conviction

Eighty-two per cent of all prisoners detained in 2024 were on remand, meaning they have not had trials yet and are legally innocent or are awaiting sentencing.

“More than half of the remand population won’t ever be convicted,” said Taylor 

While there is an overwhelming public sentiment that Canada’s prisons allow too many offenders leniency, a significant portion of inmates in the country are people who have not been convicted of a crime and will never be convicted of a crime.

Both the federal and provincial governments have stated they aim to target violent criminals and repeat offenders with these reforms. However, these reforms would target anyone charged with a crime, violent or otherwise. 

“The provincial government’s proposal would apply to anyone with a criminal offence regardless of its gravity or seriousness and regardless of their prior criminal record,” said Shakir Rahim, the director of the Criminal Justice Program at the Canadian Civil Liberties Association.

“In terms of what the federal government is proposing, the new reverse-onus provisions also apply to anybody who has not been previously convicted of an offence,” said Rahim.

There is no evidence that, generally, violent crime occurs because of lenient bail conditions. Crime is in fact dropping in some major cities.

“Crime rates across Canada are declining significantly this year. In Vancouver, the mayor announced that violent crime is at a 23-year low. In Toronto, the murder rate has dropped by nearly 50%, and in Montreal, gun violence has decreased by half. These are stark numbers that have occurred without any proposals to gut the bail system. It really begs the question: is the assertion that bail is to blame for crime rates going up and down at any particular time actually true?” asked Rahim.

While these experts note we do not have data regarding the effect of bail conditions on crime, we can be sure that these proposals “would capture a lot more people” in the criminal justice system “than just a small subset of so-called repeat and violent offenders,” said Rahim.

Preserving public safety without imprisonment

Rahim notes that when decisions are made about who is released on bail, factors like community ties, stable housing, and having someone who can vouch for you often play a major role. People who are homeless, do not have fixed addresses, or are living in precarious circumstances are far less likely to meet these criteria, which means they are disproportionately denied bail and end up in pre-trial detention at much higher rates.

“Those people are suffering from a lack of investment in the solutions that we know work. Proper social support, collaborative approaches to well-being, decent action on mental health, housing, substance use, instead we throw them into provincial jails,” said Taylor.

Advocates argue there is a way to preserve public safety without sweeping bail reforms and increasing incarceration rates.

The CCLA recommends funding programs designed to support bail compliance, including bail bed programs for individuals without stable housing and bail support programs that connect people with organizations to ensure they meet release conditions.

“There needs to be a fundamental rethinking of what prison is for and who should be in it,” said Taylor. 

Experts argue that, rather than expanding pre-trial detention, targeted social supports and collaborative interventions can both uphold public safety and reduce the strain on overcrowded jails.